Tehran University of Medical Sciences Journal of Arthropod-Borne Diseases 2322-1984 0 0 2026 08 01 1956 1956 Samira Karimi Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, Zoonoses Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, Student’s Scientific Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Ensiyeh Jamshidi Student’s Scientific Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, Department of Health Education and Promotion, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Masud Yunesian Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, Center for Air Pollution Research, Institute for Environmental Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran Shahyad Azari-Hamidian Research Center of Health and Environment, School of Health, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran, Department of Medical Parasitology, Mycology and Entomology, School of Medicine, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran Behzad Norouzi Research Center of Health and Environment, School of Health, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran Morteza Pourgholami Vice-Chancellorship of Health, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran Ahmad Ali Hanafi-Bojd 2Zoonoses Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, Department of Vector Biology and Control of Diseases, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran 2026 05 31 2026 07 23 Background: Aedes albopictus, a key vector of arboviral diseases, has already been detected in Guilan Province, Iran, and is emerging as a public health concern in the country. This study aimed to identify monthly high-risk areas of Ae. albopictus and predict its distribution in Guilan Province using ecological niche modeling under current and projected climate scenarios. Guilan Province, with its high annual influx of travellers and active maritime ports, represents a stra­tegic area for monitoring Ae. albopictus establishment. Methods: A total of 200 occurrence points were obtained from local entomological surveys and health authorities. Four MaxEnt models were developed: current baseline (bioclimatic variables + elevation); current enhanced (bioclimatic variables + elevation + LST, NDVI, NDWI and population); and two future scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, year 2030, CMIP6). Model performance was excellent, with AUC values of 0.909 and 0.908 for the baseline and enhanced models, respectively. Monthly thermal suitability maps were generated based on 2024 meteorological data using the optimal temperature range of 15–35 °C. Results: Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, risk areas expanded, and the monthly analysis indicated that nearly the entire Guilan Province exhibited suitable conditions for seven months of the year. The warm months showed the highest prob­ability of Ae. albopictus presence across the province. Conclusions: These findings provide critical insights for targeted vector surveillance and control strategies in the re­gion. https://jad.tums.ac.ir/index.php/jad/article/view/1956 https://jad.tums.ac.ir/index.php/jad/article/download/1956/730