Dynamic Relations between Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Climatic Factors in Golestan Province, Iran
,
Abstract
Background: Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL), an important public health problem in Iran, is sensitive to climate conditions. This study aimed to examine dynamic relations between the climate factors and incidence of ZCL in Golestan Province, northern Iran during 2010–2012.Methods: Data of monthly climatic factors, including temperature variables, relative humidity variables, evaporation, total rainfall, and number of freezing and rainy days together with monthly ZCL incidence were used. Spearman rank correlation was carried out to explain associations between the monthly ZCL incidence rate and climate factors at 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 months lagged periods. Pearson’s correlation analysis was conducted to examine the type and strength of relationships between the spatially averaged climate factors and ZCL incidence rate in district level. Stepwise multiple regression was used to find the best combination of independent climatic variables, which predict the ZCL incidence.
Results: Spearman correlation analysis indicated that the highest correlations between climate factors and monthly ZCL incidence were established when the climate time-series lagged the ZCL incidence series, especially two month prior to disease incidence. Based on the results of the both Spearman rank correlation and Pearson correlation analyses, ZCL incidences in Golestan Province tend to be more prevalent in areas with higher temperature, lower relative humidity, lower total rainfall, higher evaporation and lower number of rainy days. The results of stepwise regression analysis indicated that minimum temperature, mean humidity, and rainfall had considerable effect on ZCL incidence.
Conclusion: Climate factors are major determinants of ZCL incidence rate in Golestan Province and such climate conditions provide favourable conditions for propagation and transmission of ZCL in this endemic area.
Akhavan AA, Yaghoobi-Ershadi MR, Mir- hendi H, Alimohammadian MH, Rassi Y, Shareghi N, Jafari R, Arandian MH, Abdoli H, Ghanei M (2010) Molecular epizootiology of rodent leishmaniasis in a hyperendemic area of Iran. Iran J Public Health. 39(1): 1–7.
Alvar J, Velez ID, Bern C, Herrero M, Des- jeux P, Cano J, Jannin J, Boer M, WHO Leishmaniasis Control Team (2012) Leishmaniasis worldwide and global es- timates of its incidence. PloS One. 7(5): e35671.
Chaves LF, Pascual M (2006) Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leishmaniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease. PLoS Med. 3(8): e295.
Goto K, Kumarendran B, Mettananda S, Gunasekara D, Fujii Y, Kaneko S (2013) Analysis of effects of meteorological fac- tors on dengue incidence in Sri Lanka using time series data. PloS One. 8(5): e63717.
Kelly-Hope L, Thomson CM (2008) Climate and Infectious Diseases. In: Thomson MC, Garcia-Herrera R, Beniston M (Eds): Seasonal forecast, climate change and human health. Springer Science, Netherlands, pp. 31–70.
Mollalo A, Alimohammadi A, Shirzadi MR, Malek MR (2015) Geographic Infor- mation System-based analysis of the spatial and spatio-temporal distribution of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Golestan province, north-east of Iran. Zoonoses Public Health. 62(1): 18–28.
Mollalo A, Alimohammadi A, Shahrisvand M, Shirzadi MR, Malek MR (2014) Spatial and statistical analyses of the relations between vegetation cover and incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in an endemic province, northeast of Iran. Asian Pac J Trop Dis. 4(1): 930–934.
Moore DA, Carpenter TE (1999) Spatial ana- lytical methods and geographic infor- mation systems: use in health research and epidemiology. Epidemiol Rev. 21 (2): 143–161.
Mozafari GH, Bakhshizadeh-Kolooche F (2011) Analysis of bioclimia factors on the leishmaniasis diseases in Yazd- Ardakan plain. Geography and Devel- opment. 9(23): 185–202 (in Persian)
Nath DC, Mwchahary DD (2012) Associa- tion between climatic variables and malaria incidence: a study in Kokra- jhar district of Assam, India. Glob J Health Sci. 5(1): 90–106.
Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA (2005) Impact of regional climate change on human health. Na-ture. 438(7066): 310–317.
Rassi Y, Sofizadeh A, Abai M, Oshaghi M, Rafizadeh S, Mohebail M, Mohtarami F, Salahi R (2008) Molecular detection of Leishmania major in the vectors and reservoir hosts of cutaneous leishma- niasis in Kalaleh district, Golestan Province, Iran. Iran J Arthropod-Borne Dis. 2(2): 21–27.
Ready PD (2008) Leishmaniasis emergence and climate change. Rev Sci Tech. 27 (2): 399–412.
Roger A, Nacher M, Hanf M, Drogoul AS, Adenis A, Basurko C, Dufour J, Sainte- Marie D, Blanchet D, Simon S, Carme B, Couppié P (2013) Climate and Leishmaniasis in French Guiana. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 89(3): 564–569.
Sharbatkhori M, Spotin A, Taherkhani H, Roshanghalb M, Parvizi P (2014) Mo- lecular variation in Leishmania para- sites from sandflies species of a zoono- tic cutaneous leishmaniasis in north- east of Iran. J Vector Borne Dis. 51(1):16–21.
Singh KV (1999) Studies on the role of climatological factors in the distribution of Phlebotomine sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in semi-arid areas of Ra- jasthan, India. J Arid Environ. 42(1):43–48.
Toumi A, Chlif S, Bettaieb J, Alaya NB, Boukthir A, Ahmadi ZE, Salah AB (2012) Temporal dynamics and impact of climate factors on the incidence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in central Tunisia. PLoS Negl Trop Dis.6(5): e1633.
Yaghoobi-Ershadi MR, Shahbazi F, Darvishi M, Akhavan AA, Jafari R, Khajeian M, Rassi Y, Soleimani H, Shirzadi MR, Hanafi-Bojd AA, Darabi H, Arandian MH, Sanei-Dehkordi A, Heidari M (2013) Molecular epidemiological study of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the focus of Bushehr City, southwestern Iran. J Arthropod-Borne Dis. 7(2): 113–121.
Yaghoobi-Ershadi MR (2012) Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Iran and their role on Leishmania transmis- sion. J Arthropod-Borne Dis. 6(1): 1–17.
Yazdanpanah HA, Rostamianpur M (2013) Analysis of spatial distribution of leishma-niasis and its relationship with climatic parameters (case study: Ilam Prov- ince). Bull Env Pharmacol Life Sci.2(12): 80–86.
Zhao X, Chen F, Feng Z, Li X, Zhou XH (2014) The temporal lagged association between meteorological factors and ma- laria in 30 counties in south-west Chi- na: a multilevel distributed lag non- linear analysis. Malar J. 13(1): 57–69.
World Health Assembly (2007) The World Health Assembly Resolution (WHA 60.13) on the “Control of Leishma- niasis”. Geneva, Switzerland. Available at: http://www.who.int/neglected_diseasesmediacentre/WHA_60.13_Eng .pdf.
WHO (2012) Available at: http://gis.emro.Who. int/leishmanya/atlas.html.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 9 No 2 (2015) | |
| Section | Original Article | |
| Keywords | ||
| Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) Climate factors Correlation analysis GIS Iran | ||
| Rights and permissions | |
|
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
