Prediction of Trends and Bioclimatic Factors Influencing the Monthly Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Using Arima and Sarima Time Series Models in Maraveh Tappeh County, Golestan Province, Iran
Abstract
Background: Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is a significant vector-borne disease in northeastern Iran, strongly affected by climatic conditions. Maraveh Tappeh County in Golestan Province is an endemic area with considerable annual case numbers. This study aimed to predict monthly ZCL trends and identify key bioclimatic factors influencing disease occurrence using ARIMA and SARIMA time series models.
Methods: This analytical cross-sectional study used monthly confirmed ZCL case data from 2003 to 2018, obtained from the Maraveh Tappeh County Health Center. Climatic variables, including temperature indices, relative humidity indices, total monthly precipitation and number of rainy days, were collected from the local meteorological office. Stationarity was assessed using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test and autocorrelation patterns were evaluated through ACF and PACF plots. ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) and SARIMA (Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) models were developed, with the optimal model selected based on AIC and BIC criteria. Cross-correlation analysis examined associations between climatic variables and ZCL incidence at lags of 0–5 months.
Results: A total of 1,301 ZCL cases were reported over the 16 years, with marked monthly and seasonal variability. Incidence peaked in November and reached its lowest level in June. The ARIMA (2,0,2)–SARIMA (0,0,1)12 model demonstrated the best predictive performance. Significant positive correlations were observed between ZCL incidence and relative humidity, precipitation and number of rainy days at short lags (0–2 months), while inverse associations appeared at longer lags (5 months) (p<0.05).
Conclusion: Relative humidity and precipitation are key drivers of ZCL dynamics in Maraveh Tappeh. Incorporating SARIMA models into surveillance systems may improve outbreak prediction and support timely prevention and control strategies.
1- Yaghoobi-Ershadi MR (2012) Phlebotom-ine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Iran and their role on Leishmania trans-mis¬sion. J Arthropod-Borne Dis. 6: 1–7.
2- Rassi Y, Sofizadeh A, Abai MR, Oshaghi MA, Rafizadeh S, Mohebail M, Moh-tarami F, Salahi R (2008) Molecular de-tection of Leishmania major in the vec-tors and reservoir hosts of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Kalaleh District, Goles-tan Province, Iran. Iran J Arthropod-Borne Dis. 2(2): 21–27.
3- Cherabin M, Sofizadeh A, Palideh AR, Ghara¬vi AH, Gharavi M (2012) Epide-miological characteristics of cautaneous leishmaniasis in Maraveh Tappeh district, Golestan Province during 2006- 2010. J Zabol Uni Med Sci. 4(1): 19-27 (Per¬sian).
4- Sofizadeh A, Faraji Far AA, Cherabin M, Badiei F, Cherabin M, Sarli J, YapangGhara¬vi, Mehravaran A (2013) Cu¬taneous leishmaniasis in Gonbad-Kavoos, North of Iran (2009–11), an epi-demi¬o¬logical study. J Gorgan Uni Med Sci. 14 (4): 100–106 (Persian).
5- Sofizadeh A, Ghorbani M, Gorganli Davaji A, Gharemeshk Gharavi A (2015) Epi¬de-miological status of cutaneous leish¬man-iasis and ecological characteristics of sand¬flies in Maraveh-Tappeh County, Go¬les¬tan Province, Iran (2011–2012). Qom Univ Med Sci J. 9(6): 53–65 (Persian).
6- Sofizadeh A, Vatandoost H, Rassi Y, Hanafi-Bojd AA, Rafizadeh S (2016) Spatial anal¬yses of relation between ro-dent’s active burrows and incidence of zoonotic cuta¬neous leishmaniasis in Go-lestan Prov¬ince, northeastern of Iran. J Arthropod-Borne Dis. 10(4): 569–576.
7- gh-Ataby MD, Sofizadeh A, Ozbaki GM, Malaki-Ravasan N, Ghanbari MR, Mozafa¬ri O (2016) Ecoepidemiological charac¬ter¬istics of a hypoendemic focus of zo¬onotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in north Iran (southeast of Caspian Sea). J Vector Borne Dis. 53: 248–256.
8- Roshanghalb M, Parvizi P (2012) Isolation and determination of Leishmania major and Leishmania turanikain in Phleboto-mus papatasi main vector of Zoonotic Cutane¬ous leishmaniasis in Turkmen Sahra, Go¬lestan Province. J Mazandaran Uni Med Sci. 21(Supplement 1): 74–83.
9- Akhoundi M, Mohebali M, Asadi M, Mahmodi MR, Amraei K, Mirzaei A (2013) Molecular characterization of Leishmania spp. In reservoir hosts in en-demic foci of zoonotic cutaneous leish-maniasis in Iran. Folia Parasitol. 60(3): 218–224.
10- Bordbar A, Parvizi P (2014) High density of Leishmania major and rarity of other mammals' Leishmania in zoonotic cuta-neous leishmaniasis foci, Iran. Trop Med Int Health. 19(3): 355–363.
11- Mozafari O, Sofizadeh A, Shoraka HR, Namroodi J, Kalteh EA (2020) Eco-epi-demiology of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Golestan Province, northeastern Iran: a sys¬tematic review. Jorjani Biomed J. 8(1): 60–78.
12- Jorjani O, Mirkarimi K, Charkazi A, Dadban Shahamat Y, Mehrbakhsh Z, Bagheri A (2019) The epidemiology of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Golestan Prov-ince, Iran: A cross-sectional study of 8-years. Parasite Epidemiol Control. 5: e00099.
13- Sofizadeh A, Rassi Y, Vatandoost H, Hanafi-Bojd AA, Mollalo A, Rafizadeh S, Akhavan AA (2017) Predicting the dis¬tribution of Phlebotomus papatasi (Dip¬tera: Psychodidae), the primary vec-tor of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis, in Go¬lestan Province of Iran using eco-logical niche modeling: Comparison of MaxEnt and GARP Models. J Med En-tomol. 54 (2): 312–320.
14- Hanafi-Bojd AA, Yaghoobi-Ershadi MR, Haghdoost AA, Akhavan AA, Rassi Y, Karimi A, Charrahy Z (2015) Modeling the distribution of cutaneous leishmania-sis vectors (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in Iran: a potential transmission in dis¬ease prone areas. J Med Entomol. 52(4): 557–565.
15- Sofizadeh A, Hanafi-Bojd AA, Shoraka HR (2018) Modeling spatial distribution of Rhombomys opimus as the main reser-voir host of zoonotic cutaneous leishman-iasis in northeastern Iran. J Vector Borne Dis. 55(4): 297–304.
16- Hosseini SH, Allah-Kalteh E, Sofizadeh A (2021) the effect of geographical and climatic factors on the distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi (Diptera: Psycho-didae) in Golestan Province, an endemic focus of zoonotic cutaneous leishmania¬sis in Iran, 2014. J Arthropod-Borne Dis. 15(2): 225–235.
17- Cowpertwait PS, Metcalfe A (2009) In-troductory Time Series with R. Springer-Verlag, New York.
18- Jebb AT, Tay L, Wang W and Huang Q (2015) Time series analysis for psycho-logical research: examining and forecast-ing change. Front Psychol. 6: 727.
19- Sharafi M, Ghaem H, Tabatabaee HR, Fara¬marzi H (2017) Forecasting the num-ber of zoonotic cutaneous leishmani¬asis cases in south of Fars Province, Iran using seasonal ARIMA time series meth¬od. Asian Pac J Trop Med. 10(1): 79–86.
20- Lewnard JA, Jirmanus L, Júnior NN, Ma-chado PR, Glesby MJ, Ko AI, Car¬valho EM, Schriefer A, Weinberger DM (2014) Forecasting temporal dynamics of cuta-neous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 8(10): e3283.
21- Bozorg-Omid F, Kafash A, Jafari R, Akha¬van AA, Rahimi M, Foroushani RF, Youssefi F, Shirzadi MA, Ostadtaghiza-deh A, Hanafi-Bojd AA (2023) Predict-ing current and future high-risk areas for vectors and reservoirs of cutaneous leish-maniasis in Iran. Sci Rep. 13: 11546.
22- Ahangar Cani M, FARNAGHI M (2019) Providing a model for cutaneous leish-maniasis risk mapping using GIS and neu-ral network algorithm. Geographical Da-ta. 28(109): 7–24 (Persian).
23 Parto F, Valadan Zoij MJ, Yousefi F, Alatab S (2025) Forecasting zoonotic cu-taneous leishmaniasis risk through inte-grated simulated remote-sensing data and epidemiological records. Iran J Remote Sens GIS. (In press).
24- Kumari S, Muthulakshmi P (2024) SARI-MA Model: An efficient machine learn-ing technique for weather forecast¬ing. Pro¬cedia Comput Sci. 235: 656–670.
25 Peng PY, Duan HY, Xu L, Sun JQ, Ma LJ (2025) A seasonal autoregressive inte-grated moving average (SARIMA) fore-casting model to predict the epidemic trends of scrub typhus in China. PLOS ONE. 20(6): e0325905.
26- Correa Antonialli S, Torres TG, Paranhos Filho AC, Tolezano JE (2007) Spatial analy¬sis of American visceral leishmani-asis in Mato Grosso do Sul State, Central Brazil. J Infect. 54: 509–514.
27- Azimi F, Shirian S, Jangjoo S, Ai A, Ab-basi T (2017) Impact of climate variabil¬ity on the occurrence of cutaneous leish-maniasis in Khuzestan Province, South-western Iran. Geospat Health. 12(1): 15–22.
28- Rodriguez-Morales A (2005) Ecoepide-miology and satellite epidemiology: new tools for managing public health prob-lems. Rev Peru Med Exp Salud Publica. 22: 54–63 (Spanish).
29- Milić M, Milojković J, Jeremić M (2022) Optimal neural network model for short-term prediction of confirmed cases in the COVID-19 pandem¬ic. Mathematics. 10(20): 3804.
30- Kontopoulou VI, Panagopoulos AD, Kakkos I, Matsopoulos GK (2023) A re-view of ARIMA vs. Machine learn¬ing ap-proaches for time series forecasting in da-ta driven networks. Future Inter¬net. 15: 255.
31- ArunKumar KE, Kalaga DV, Sai Kumar CM, Kawaji M, Timothy MB (2022) Com¬parative analysis of gated recurrent units (GRU), long short-term memory (LSTM) cells, autoregressive integrated moving av¬erage (ARIMA), seasonal au-toregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) for forecasting COVID-19 trends. Alex Eng J. 16(10): 7585–7603.
32- Hakem A, El Khiat A, Ezzahidi A, Bouhout S, Ait Ali D, El Houate B, Bou-taayamou I (2025) Incidence and predic-tion of cu¬taneous leishmaniasis cases and its relat¬ed factors in an endemic area of South¬east Morocco: Time series analysis. Acta Trop. 264: 107579.
33- Rassi Y, Hanafi-Bojd AA (2006) Sand-flies, vectors of Leishmaniasis. Noava¬ran-e- Elm Publication, Tehran (Persian).
34- Sharafi M, Ghaem H, Tabatabaee HR, Faramarzi H (2017) Forecasting the num-ber of zoonotic cutaneous leishmani¬asis cases in south of Fars Province, Iran using seasonal ARIMA time series meth¬od. Asian Pac J Trop Med. 10(1): 79–86
35- Nikonahad A, Khorshidi A, Ghaffari HR, Aval HE, Miri M, Amarloei A, Nourmo-radi H, Mohammadi A (2017) A time se-ries analysis of environmental and metro-logical factors impact on cutaneous leish-maniasis incidence in an endemic ar¬ea of Dehloran, Iran. Environ Sci Pollut Res. 24: 14117–14123.
36- Majidnia M, Ahmadabadi Z, Zolfaghari P, Khosravi A (2023) Time series analy¬sis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in Shahroud based on ARIMA mod¬el. BMC Public Health. 23: 1190.
37- Oshaghi MA, Maleki Ravasan N, Javadi-an E, Rassi Y, Sadraei J, Enayati AA, Vatandoost H, Zare Z, Emami SN (2009) Application of predictive degree day mod¬el for field development of sandfly vec¬tors of visceral leishmaniasis in northwest of Iran. J Vector Borne Dis. 46(4): 247–255.
38- Wijerathna T, Gunathilaka N (2023) Time series analysis of leishmaniasis in¬cidence in Sri Lanka: evidence for hu¬midity-as-sociated fluctuations. Int J Bio¬meteorol. 67: 275–284.
39- Arvin AA, Mozafari GA, NoruzBagheri J (2013) Investigating the relationship be-tween leishmaniasis outbreak and climat¬ic parameters in the Eastern Region of Is-fahan. J Nat Haz Environ. 4(2): 43–60 (Persian).
40- Chaves LF, Pascual M (2006) Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leish-maniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease. PLoS Med. 3(8): e295.
41- Akbari E, Mayvaneh E, Entezari A, Naz-ari M (2014) Survey of the role of bio-climatic factors in the outbreak of Cuta-neous Leishmaniasis. Iran J Epidemiol. 10(3): 65–74 (Persian).
42- Viana GMC, Nascimento MDSB, Rabelo EMF, Neto JAD, Junior JRB, Galvao CS, Santos ACD, Junior OMS, Oliveria RAS, Guimaraes RS (2011) Relationship be-tween rainfall and temperature: observa-tions on the cases of visceral leishmania¬sis in São Luis Island, State of Maranhão, Brazil. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 44(6): 722–724.
43- Afshar PJ, Bahrampour A, Shahesmaeili A (2022) Determination of the trend of incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Kerman Province 2014-2020 and fore-cast¬ing until 2023. A time series study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 16(4): e0010250.
44- El Idrissi Saik I, Talimi H, Badri B, Bouhout S, Fissoune R, Riyad M, Lemra-ni M (2025) Cutaneous leishmani¬asis in Casablanca-Settat region (Moroc¬co): spa-tio-temporal analysis of disease dynamic and machine learning based case predic-tion. medRxiv. 01.28.25321261.
45- Bounoua L, Kahime K, Houti L, Blakey T, Ebi KL, Zhang P, Imhoff ML, Thoma KJ, Dudek C, Sahabi SA, Messouli M, Ma¬khlouf B, El Laamrani A, Boumez-zough A (2013) Linking climate to inci-dence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmania-sis (L. ma¬jor) in pre-Saharan North Afri-ca. Int J En¬viron Res Public Health. 10: 3172–3191.
46- Medenica S, Miladinović-Tasić N, Stoja-nović NM, Lakićević N, Rakočević B (2023) Climate variables related to the in-cidence of human leishmaniosis in Mon-tenegro in southeastern Europe dur¬ing seven decades (1945-2014). Int J En¬viron Res Public Health. 20(3): 1656.
47- Navi Z, Salahi-Moghaddam A, Habibi-No¬khandan M, Mohebali M, Hajjaran H, Fuentes MV (2024) A geomedical sur¬vey: is there an association between cli¬matic con¬ditions and Leishmania species distribu¬tion in Iran during the years 1999-2021? Acta Parasitol. 69(1): 769–775.
2- Rassi Y, Sofizadeh A, Abai MR, Oshaghi MA, Rafizadeh S, Mohebail M, Moh-tarami F, Salahi R (2008) Molecular de-tection of Leishmania major in the vec-tors and reservoir hosts of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Kalaleh District, Goles-tan Province, Iran. Iran J Arthropod-Borne Dis. 2(2): 21–27.
3- Cherabin M, Sofizadeh A, Palideh AR, Ghara¬vi AH, Gharavi M (2012) Epide-miological characteristics of cautaneous leishmaniasis in Maraveh Tappeh district, Golestan Province during 2006- 2010. J Zabol Uni Med Sci. 4(1): 19-27 (Per¬sian).
4- Sofizadeh A, Faraji Far AA, Cherabin M, Badiei F, Cherabin M, Sarli J, YapangGhara¬vi, Mehravaran A (2013) Cu¬taneous leishmaniasis in Gonbad-Kavoos, North of Iran (2009–11), an epi-demi¬o¬logical study. J Gorgan Uni Med Sci. 14 (4): 100–106 (Persian).
5- Sofizadeh A, Ghorbani M, Gorganli Davaji A, Gharemeshk Gharavi A (2015) Epi¬de-miological status of cutaneous leish¬man-iasis and ecological characteristics of sand¬flies in Maraveh-Tappeh County, Go¬les¬tan Province, Iran (2011–2012). Qom Univ Med Sci J. 9(6): 53–65 (Persian).
6- Sofizadeh A, Vatandoost H, Rassi Y, Hanafi-Bojd AA, Rafizadeh S (2016) Spatial anal¬yses of relation between ro-dent’s active burrows and incidence of zoonotic cuta¬neous leishmaniasis in Go-lestan Prov¬ince, northeastern of Iran. J Arthropod-Borne Dis. 10(4): 569–576.
7- gh-Ataby MD, Sofizadeh A, Ozbaki GM, Malaki-Ravasan N, Ghanbari MR, Mozafa¬ri O (2016) Ecoepidemiological charac¬ter¬istics of a hypoendemic focus of zo¬onotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in north Iran (southeast of Caspian Sea). J Vector Borne Dis. 53: 248–256.
8- Roshanghalb M, Parvizi P (2012) Isolation and determination of Leishmania major and Leishmania turanikain in Phleboto-mus papatasi main vector of Zoonotic Cutane¬ous leishmaniasis in Turkmen Sahra, Go¬lestan Province. J Mazandaran Uni Med Sci. 21(Supplement 1): 74–83.
9- Akhoundi M, Mohebali M, Asadi M, Mahmodi MR, Amraei K, Mirzaei A (2013) Molecular characterization of Leishmania spp. In reservoir hosts in en-demic foci of zoonotic cutaneous leish-maniasis in Iran. Folia Parasitol. 60(3): 218–224.
10- Bordbar A, Parvizi P (2014) High density of Leishmania major and rarity of other mammals' Leishmania in zoonotic cuta-neous leishmaniasis foci, Iran. Trop Med Int Health. 19(3): 355–363.
11- Mozafari O, Sofizadeh A, Shoraka HR, Namroodi J, Kalteh EA (2020) Eco-epi-demiology of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Golestan Province, northeastern Iran: a sys¬tematic review. Jorjani Biomed J. 8(1): 60–78.
12- Jorjani O, Mirkarimi K, Charkazi A, Dadban Shahamat Y, Mehrbakhsh Z, Bagheri A (2019) The epidemiology of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Golestan Prov-ince, Iran: A cross-sectional study of 8-years. Parasite Epidemiol Control. 5: e00099.
13- Sofizadeh A, Rassi Y, Vatandoost H, Hanafi-Bojd AA, Mollalo A, Rafizadeh S, Akhavan AA (2017) Predicting the dis¬tribution of Phlebotomus papatasi (Dip¬tera: Psychodidae), the primary vec-tor of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis, in Go¬lestan Province of Iran using eco-logical niche modeling: Comparison of MaxEnt and GARP Models. J Med En-tomol. 54 (2): 312–320.
14- Hanafi-Bojd AA, Yaghoobi-Ershadi MR, Haghdoost AA, Akhavan AA, Rassi Y, Karimi A, Charrahy Z (2015) Modeling the distribution of cutaneous leishmania-sis vectors (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in Iran: a potential transmission in dis¬ease prone areas. J Med Entomol. 52(4): 557–565.
15- Sofizadeh A, Hanafi-Bojd AA, Shoraka HR (2018) Modeling spatial distribution of Rhombomys opimus as the main reser-voir host of zoonotic cutaneous leishman-iasis in northeastern Iran. J Vector Borne Dis. 55(4): 297–304.
16- Hosseini SH, Allah-Kalteh E, Sofizadeh A (2021) the effect of geographical and climatic factors on the distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi (Diptera: Psycho-didae) in Golestan Province, an endemic focus of zoonotic cutaneous leishmania¬sis in Iran, 2014. J Arthropod-Borne Dis. 15(2): 225–235.
17- Cowpertwait PS, Metcalfe A (2009) In-troductory Time Series with R. Springer-Verlag, New York.
18- Jebb AT, Tay L, Wang W and Huang Q (2015) Time series analysis for psycho-logical research: examining and forecast-ing change. Front Psychol. 6: 727.
19- Sharafi M, Ghaem H, Tabatabaee HR, Fara¬marzi H (2017) Forecasting the num-ber of zoonotic cutaneous leishmani¬asis cases in south of Fars Province, Iran using seasonal ARIMA time series meth¬od. Asian Pac J Trop Med. 10(1): 79–86.
20- Lewnard JA, Jirmanus L, Júnior NN, Ma-chado PR, Glesby MJ, Ko AI, Car¬valho EM, Schriefer A, Weinberger DM (2014) Forecasting temporal dynamics of cuta-neous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 8(10): e3283.
21- Bozorg-Omid F, Kafash A, Jafari R, Akha¬van AA, Rahimi M, Foroushani RF, Youssefi F, Shirzadi MA, Ostadtaghiza-deh A, Hanafi-Bojd AA (2023) Predict-ing current and future high-risk areas for vectors and reservoirs of cutaneous leish-maniasis in Iran. Sci Rep. 13: 11546.
22- Ahangar Cani M, FARNAGHI M (2019) Providing a model for cutaneous leish-maniasis risk mapping using GIS and neu-ral network algorithm. Geographical Da-ta. 28(109): 7–24 (Persian).
23 Parto F, Valadan Zoij MJ, Yousefi F, Alatab S (2025) Forecasting zoonotic cu-taneous leishmaniasis risk through inte-grated simulated remote-sensing data and epidemiological records. Iran J Remote Sens GIS. (In press).
24- Kumari S, Muthulakshmi P (2024) SARI-MA Model: An efficient machine learn-ing technique for weather forecast¬ing. Pro¬cedia Comput Sci. 235: 656–670.
25 Peng PY, Duan HY, Xu L, Sun JQ, Ma LJ (2025) A seasonal autoregressive inte-grated moving average (SARIMA) fore-casting model to predict the epidemic trends of scrub typhus in China. PLOS ONE. 20(6): e0325905.
26- Correa Antonialli S, Torres TG, Paranhos Filho AC, Tolezano JE (2007) Spatial analy¬sis of American visceral leishmani-asis in Mato Grosso do Sul State, Central Brazil. J Infect. 54: 509–514.
27- Azimi F, Shirian S, Jangjoo S, Ai A, Ab-basi T (2017) Impact of climate variabil¬ity on the occurrence of cutaneous leish-maniasis in Khuzestan Province, South-western Iran. Geospat Health. 12(1): 15–22.
28- Rodriguez-Morales A (2005) Ecoepide-miology and satellite epidemiology: new tools for managing public health prob-lems. Rev Peru Med Exp Salud Publica. 22: 54–63 (Spanish).
29- Milić M, Milojković J, Jeremić M (2022) Optimal neural network model for short-term prediction of confirmed cases in the COVID-19 pandem¬ic. Mathematics. 10(20): 3804.
30- Kontopoulou VI, Panagopoulos AD, Kakkos I, Matsopoulos GK (2023) A re-view of ARIMA vs. Machine learn¬ing ap-proaches for time series forecasting in da-ta driven networks. Future Inter¬net. 15: 255.
31- ArunKumar KE, Kalaga DV, Sai Kumar CM, Kawaji M, Timothy MB (2022) Com¬parative analysis of gated recurrent units (GRU), long short-term memory (LSTM) cells, autoregressive integrated moving av¬erage (ARIMA), seasonal au-toregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) for forecasting COVID-19 trends. Alex Eng J. 16(10): 7585–7603.
32- Hakem A, El Khiat A, Ezzahidi A, Bouhout S, Ait Ali D, El Houate B, Bou-taayamou I (2025) Incidence and predic-tion of cu¬taneous leishmaniasis cases and its relat¬ed factors in an endemic area of South¬east Morocco: Time series analysis. Acta Trop. 264: 107579.
33- Rassi Y, Hanafi-Bojd AA (2006) Sand-flies, vectors of Leishmaniasis. Noava¬ran-e- Elm Publication, Tehran (Persian).
34- Sharafi M, Ghaem H, Tabatabaee HR, Faramarzi H (2017) Forecasting the num-ber of zoonotic cutaneous leishmani¬asis cases in south of Fars Province, Iran using seasonal ARIMA time series meth¬od. Asian Pac J Trop Med. 10(1): 79–86
35- Nikonahad A, Khorshidi A, Ghaffari HR, Aval HE, Miri M, Amarloei A, Nourmo-radi H, Mohammadi A (2017) A time se-ries analysis of environmental and metro-logical factors impact on cutaneous leish-maniasis incidence in an endemic ar¬ea of Dehloran, Iran. Environ Sci Pollut Res. 24: 14117–14123.
36- Majidnia M, Ahmadabadi Z, Zolfaghari P, Khosravi A (2023) Time series analy¬sis of cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in Shahroud based on ARIMA mod¬el. BMC Public Health. 23: 1190.
37- Oshaghi MA, Maleki Ravasan N, Javadi-an E, Rassi Y, Sadraei J, Enayati AA, Vatandoost H, Zare Z, Emami SN (2009) Application of predictive degree day mod¬el for field development of sandfly vec¬tors of visceral leishmaniasis in northwest of Iran. J Vector Borne Dis. 46(4): 247–255.
38- Wijerathna T, Gunathilaka N (2023) Time series analysis of leishmaniasis in¬cidence in Sri Lanka: evidence for hu¬midity-as-sociated fluctuations. Int J Bio¬meteorol. 67: 275–284.
39- Arvin AA, Mozafari GA, NoruzBagheri J (2013) Investigating the relationship be-tween leishmaniasis outbreak and climat¬ic parameters in the Eastern Region of Is-fahan. J Nat Haz Environ. 4(2): 43–60 (Persian).
40- Chaves LF, Pascual M (2006) Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leish-maniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease. PLoS Med. 3(8): e295.
41- Akbari E, Mayvaneh E, Entezari A, Naz-ari M (2014) Survey of the role of bio-climatic factors in the outbreak of Cuta-neous Leishmaniasis. Iran J Epidemiol. 10(3): 65–74 (Persian).
42- Viana GMC, Nascimento MDSB, Rabelo EMF, Neto JAD, Junior JRB, Galvao CS, Santos ACD, Junior OMS, Oliveria RAS, Guimaraes RS (2011) Relationship be-tween rainfall and temperature: observa-tions on the cases of visceral leishmania¬sis in São Luis Island, State of Maranhão, Brazil. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 44(6): 722–724.
43- Afshar PJ, Bahrampour A, Shahesmaeili A (2022) Determination of the trend of incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Kerman Province 2014-2020 and fore-cast¬ing until 2023. A time series study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 16(4): e0010250.
44- El Idrissi Saik I, Talimi H, Badri B, Bouhout S, Fissoune R, Riyad M, Lemra-ni M (2025) Cutaneous leishmani¬asis in Casablanca-Settat region (Moroc¬co): spa-tio-temporal analysis of disease dynamic and machine learning based case predic-tion. medRxiv. 01.28.25321261.
45- Bounoua L, Kahime K, Houti L, Blakey T, Ebi KL, Zhang P, Imhoff ML, Thoma KJ, Dudek C, Sahabi SA, Messouli M, Ma¬khlouf B, El Laamrani A, Boumez-zough A (2013) Linking climate to inci-dence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmania-sis (L. ma¬jor) in pre-Saharan North Afri-ca. Int J En¬viron Res Public Health. 10: 3172–3191.
46- Medenica S, Miladinović-Tasić N, Stoja-nović NM, Lakićević N, Rakočević B (2023) Climate variables related to the in-cidence of human leishmaniosis in Mon-tenegro in southeastern Europe dur¬ing seven decades (1945-2014). Int J En¬viron Res Public Health. 20(3): 1656.
47- Navi Z, Salahi-Moghaddam A, Habibi-No¬khandan M, Mohebali M, Hajjaran H, Fuentes MV (2024) A geomedical sur¬vey: is there an association between cli¬matic con¬ditions and Leishmania species distribu¬tion in Iran during the years 1999-2021? Acta Parasitol. 69(1): 769–775.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 19 No 4 (2025) | |
| Section | Original Article | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.18502/jad.v19i4.21210 | |
| Keywords | ||
| Cutaneous leishmaniasis Leishmania major Forecasting Time Series Analysis Iran | ||
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How to Cite
1.
Rajabzadeh R, Hosseini SH, Sofizadeh A. Prediction of Trends and Bioclimatic Factors Influencing the Monthly Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Using Arima and Sarima Time Series Models in Maraveh Tappeh County, Golestan Province, Iran. J Arthropod Borne Dis. 2026;19(4):313–328.
