Assessing the impacts of Meteorological Factors and population characteristics on cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence in an Urban Area of Southeastern Morocco: An application of the PLS-SEM model

Abstract

Background: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) remains a major public health concern in Morocco, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where environmental and demographic conditions favor disease transmission. Understanding the determinants of CL occurrence is essential for improving surveillance and control strategies. The paper aims to investigate the climatic and demographic factors associated with CL occurrence in an endemic area of southeastern Morocco during the period 2014–2023.

Methods: A multivariate analysis was performed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) implemented in R software. The conceptual model incorporated climatic variables (temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed) and population characteristics to evaluate their effects on CL occurrence.

Results: The results of the analysis indicate that climatic factors significantly affect the occurrence of CL (β = -0.576, p < 0.001). The population characteristics were also positively associated with CL occurrence (β = 0.247, p< 0.001), suggesting increased vulnerability to transmission in densely populated areas. The structural model showed that climatic variables exert both direct effects on CL occurrence and indirect effects mediated through population characteristics, highlighting the complex interactions shaping disease dynamics in the study area.

Conclusions: These findings indicate that both climatic variability and population characteristics contribute to the occurrence of CL in southeastern Morocco. Integrating these determinants into surveillance systems may improve early detection and guide targeted control strategies for vector-borne diseases in endemic regions.