Integrating Local Occurrence Records and Monthly Spatiotemporal Thermal Analysis to Predict Current and Future High-Risk Areas of Aedes albopictus in Guilan Province, Iran

Abstract

Background: Aedes albopictus, a key vector of arboviral diseases, has already been detected in Guilan Province, Iran, and is emerging as a public health concern in the country. This study aimed to identify monthly high-risk areas of Ae. albopictus and predict its distribution in Guilan Province using ecological niche modeling under current and projected climate scenarios. Guilan Province, with its high annual influx of travellers and active maritime ports, represents a stra­tegic area for monitoring Ae. albopictus establishment.
Methods: A total of 200 occurrence points were obtained from local entomological surveys and health authorities. Four MaxEnt models were developed: current baseline (bioclimatic variables + elevation); current enhanced (bioclimatic variables + elevation + LST, NDVI, NDWI and population); and two future scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, year 2030, CMIP6). Model performance was excellent, with AUC values of 0.909 and 0.908 for the baseline and enhanced models, respectively. Monthly thermal suitability maps were generated based on 2024 meteorological data using the optimal temperature range of 15–35 °C.
Results: Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, risk areas expanded, and the monthly analysis indicated that nearly the entire Guilan Province exhibited suitable conditions for seven months of the year. The warm months showed the highest prob­ability of Ae. albopictus presence across the province.
Conclusions: These findings provide critical insights for targeted vector surveillance and control strategies in the re­gion.